Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on May 25, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by May 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 55+ | 88% YES | 12% NO |
| 65+ | 69% YES | 31% NO |
| 75+ | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| 85+ | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| 60+ | 71% YES | 30% NO |
| 70+ | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| 80+ | 32% YES | 69% NO |
Lucasfilm's upcoming Star Wars film "The Mandalorian and Grogu" is scheduled for theatrical release in 2026, with critical reception to be measured by Rotten Tomatoes' All Critics Tomatometer score at market settlement on 25 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 86% implied probability that the film will achieve a score at or above the specified threshold, suggesting traders expect a moderately favourable critical reception.
Recent Star Wars theatrical releases provide meaningful benchmarks for interpreting this probability. The sequel trilogy films ranged considerably: "The Force Awakens" (2015) scored 93%, "The Last Jedi" (2017) achieved 91%, whilst "The Rise of Skywalker" (2019) received 52%. The standalone "Rogue One" (2016) scored 85%, and "Solo" (2018) achieved 70%. An 86% implied probability positions expectations between the stronger sequel entries and mid-tier Star Wars releases, reflecting uncertainty about whether the Mandalorian franchise's streaming success will translate to critical favour in theatrical form.
Key catalysts include official trailer releases, critic screenings in spring 2026, and any production delays or reshoots that might signal quality concerns. The film's director and final runtime remain subject to change. Traders should monitor entertainment press for early critical reactions from festival circuits or advance screenings, which typically emerge 4–6 weeks before theatrical release. The settlement window closes with no grace period for delayed reviews, making the Rotten Tomatoes snapshot at 10:00 AM ET on 25 May the definitive resolution point.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading ""Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu" Rotten Tomatoes score?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$319 in lifetime turnover and $851 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for rotten tomatoes contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 25 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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