Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) in this election.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <21 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 24-26 | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| 30-32 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 21-23 | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| 27-29 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| 33+ | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Andalusia holds elections for its 109-seat parliament on 17 May 2026. PSOE-A, the regional Socialist party, currently trades at 2% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting expectations for a specific seat range. The settlement window closes 17 May 2026, with a backstop resolution to the lowest bracket if results remain unclear by year-end.
PSOE-A governed Andalusia continuously from 1982 to 2018, then lost power to a centre-right coalition. In the most recent regional election (2022), PSOE-A won 33 seats, finishing second to the PP's 58 seats. The party has faced sustained pressure from both the PP and the far-right Vox, which captured 14 seats in 2022. Historical precedent suggests PSOE-A operates in a 25–40 seat range under current political conditions, though the 2% probability on Polymarket indicates traders are pricing in a scenario well outside this typical performance band.
Traders should monitor national political developments affecting Socialist fortunes, particularly shifts in central government dynamics and any regional policy announcements from PSOE-A leadership. The PP's performance in Andalusia remains a key dependency—coalition arithmetic could shift if the PP underperforms expectations or if far-right consolidation changes vote distribution. Polling releases in the months preceding May 2026 will provide concrete data; Spanish regional polling typically tightens considerably in the final quarter before election day.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Andalusia Election: PSOE-A # of seats?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for psoe contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $91 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: