Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Paxton 9%+ | 16% YES | 84% NO |
| Paxton 6–9% | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| Paxton 3–6% | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| Paxton <3% | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Cornyn <3% | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Cornyn 3–6% | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Cornyn 6–9% | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Cornyn 9%+ | 10% YES | 91% NO |
Texas will hold a Republican Senate primary runoff on 26 May 2026 between the top two candidates from the initial primary election. This market settles on the margin of victory—the absolute percentage-point difference between first and second place. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 16% probability that the winning margin exceeds a threshold (likely 10 percentage points or greater, depending on market specifications), suggesting traders expect a relatively competitive race rather than a decisive victory.
Historical Texas Republican primaries show variable margins depending on candidate profile and turnout dynamics. In 2018, Ted Cruz won his primary runoff against John Cornyn's preferred candidate with a substantial margin in a lower-turnout scenario. Runoff elections typically see depressed participation compared to general elections, which can amplify the advantage of better-organised campaigns or candidates with stronger base mobilisation. The current 16% probability reflects expectations of a closer contest than historical precedent might suggest, potentially indicating uncertainty about candidate strength or campaign infrastructure heading into 2026.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements, endorsements from sitting Texas Republicans, and early fundraising disclosures once the initial primary field clarifies. The runoff date falls after the settlement window closes on 25 May, creating a tight timeline for final positioning. Campaign spending patterns and polling data released in the weeks before the runoff will provide material signals about momentum and likely turnout composition.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$58K in lifetime turnover and $65K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for primaries contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $114 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 25 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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