Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Pennsylvania, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Pennsylvania Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| John Ventre | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Candidate A | — | |
| Candidate H | — | |
| Candidate N | — | |
| Candidate C | — | |
| Candidate K | — | |
| Stacy Garrity | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| Candidate B | — | |
Pennsylvania will hold a Republican primary election for governor on 19 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices the outcome at 1% implied probability, reflecting substantial uncertainty about whether a contested primary will materialise or whether a single candidate will secure uncontested frontrunner status before the election date. This low probability suggests traders are pricing in either a heavily consolidated field or significant structural barriers to a competitive multi-candidate race.
Pennsylvania's gubernatorial primaries have historically featured competitive fields when the incumbent is term-limited, as Governor Josh Shapiro will be in 2026. The 2022 Republican primary saw Doug Mastriano emerge as the eventual nominee despite significant establishment scepticism, demonstrating that Pennsylvania Republicans can produce unexpected winners from fragmented fields. The current 1% probability may undervalue the likelihood of a genuine primary contest, given that no clear frontrunner has yet consolidated support and the state's Republican Party remains ideologically diverse across its urban, suburban and rural constituencies.
Key catalysts for traders include formal candidate announcements, which typically accelerate in late 2025 and early 2026, and any endorsements from prominent state Republicans or national figures that could reshape the race dynamics. The Pennsylvania Republican Party's primary scheduling and ballot access rules will also determine whether multiple candidates can qualify. Recent reporting from local Pennsylvania outlets will provide early signals about candidate viability and fundraising momentum as the election approaches.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Pennsylvania Governor Republican Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$13K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for primaries contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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