Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard edition of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) launches at $100.00 or more. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the pre-tax launch price in USD of the standard edition of GTA 6 on Xbox or PlayStation as listed on the Microsoft Store or PlayStation Store on the first official day of its release in the United States. If the price differs between the Microsoft and PlayStation stores, this market will resolve according to the lower price. This market will resolve based on the lowest price version that includes the full standard game with no DLC, etc.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | 12% YES | 89% NO |
Grand Theft Auto VI is scheduled to launch in autumn 2025, with Rockstar Games having confirmed releases on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S. The market centres on whether the standard edition will carry a launch price of $100 USD or higher, settling on the lower price should it differ between storefronts. Current order book activity on Polymarket implies a 12% probability of a $100+ price point, reflecting trader expectations that the standard edition will remain at or below $99.99.
Historical precedent suggests console game pricing has remained relatively stable at the $60–$70 threshold for over a decade. The PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X generation saw most major releases, including Elden Ring and Call of Duty Modern Warfare III, launch at $69.99 in the United States. Only select premium editions or collector's versions have exceeded $100. Rockstar's own Red Dead Redemption 2 launched at $59.99 in 2018, though special editions reached higher price points. The low implied probability reflects this historical pattern and the commercial risk of pricing a flagship title significantly above market norms.
Key catalysts include Rockstar's official pricing announcement, expected closer to the autumn 2025 launch window, and any statements regarding standard versus deluxe edition structures. Publisher pricing strategies for major releases typically emerge 4–6 months before launch. Market movements may also reflect broader industry trends in AAA game pricing and consumer reception to recent $69.99 launches, though Rockstar has historically maintained conservative pricing for standard editions despite substantial development costs.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will GTA 6 cost $100+?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$87K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $425 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 12%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 February 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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