Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named movie is listed on the IMDb Top 250 Movies list by March 31, 2027, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the listed movie enters the IMDb Top 250 Movies list. The resolution source for this market will be IMDb (https://www.imdb.com/chart/top/). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Project Hail Mary | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 69% YES | 31% NO |
| Michael | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| Dune: Messiah | 71% YES | 30% NO |
| The Odyssey | 73% YES | 28% NO |
The question centres on whether films released in 2026 will achieve sufficient critical and audience acclaim to rank amongst IMDb's 250 highest-rated movies by the end of March 2027. The IMDb Top 250 list is weighted towards user ratings from registered voters, with algorithmic adjustments to prevent manipulation. Entry typically requires both a substantial vote count and a rating above approximately 8.0, though the exact threshold fluctuates based on voting patterns across the platform's user base.
Historical precedent suggests that major studio releases rarely penetrate the Top 250 within months of release. Of the films currently ranked in the upper echelons, most accumulated their positions over years of consistent user engagement. Recent entrants to the list have typically been older films experiencing renewed viewership or prestige releases that generated immediate critical consensus. The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either high confidence in a specific 2026 release's quality, or potentially thin liquidity in early trading, where initial positions can skew probabilities substantially.
Traders should monitor major festival announcements—particularly Cannes, Venice and Berlin selections in 2025—as these often signal films likely to achieve broad critical recognition. Release schedules from major studios and streaming platforms will clarify which 2026 titles carry awards momentum. The resolution window's tight deadline (March 2027) means only films released early in 2026 or those generating immediate consensus will have sufficient time to accumulate the voting volume required for Top 250 consideration.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which 2026 movies will make it into the IMDb Top 250?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $511 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 March 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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