Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.
Entertainment and pop-culture markets price events that traditional bookmakers won't touch — award winners, viral moments, cultural milestones. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 67 days to resolution — long enough that information asymmetry can still move the line meaningfully, backed by $718K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| New Rihanna Album | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| New Playboi Carti Album | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| Jesus Christ returns | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Trump out as President | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| China invades Taiwan | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Bitcoin hits $1m | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| GPT-6 released | 66% YES | 35% NO |
Grand Theft Auto VI's release remains unconfirmed beyond Rockstar Games' October 2024 announcement that the game will launch in autumn 2025. The market settles on whether any event—broadly construed—occurs before that window closes on 31 July 2026. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the near-certainty that *something* will happen in the intervening period, a reasonable baseline given the breadth of the settlement criteria and the 20-month timeframe.
Historical precedent suggests such open-ended markets typically trade at elevated probabilities. The GTA V development cycle (2008–2013) saw numerous announcements, trailer releases, gameplay reveals, and industry events before launch. Similar entertainment-release markets have shown that intermediate milestones—official trailers, gameplay footage, developer interviews, or regulatory filings—tend to materialise well ahead of final release dates. The specificity of what constitutes a triggering event matters considerably; markets with looser definitions naturally compress towards certainty.
Traders should monitor Rockstar's official communications channels and gaming press for scheduled announcements through 2025. The publisher typically releases multiple trailers and gameplay reveals in the months preceding launch. Regulatory filings, retailer pre-order listings, and industry conference appearances could all serve as catalysts. Any material delay to the autumn 2025 target would extend the settlement window's relevance, though Rockstar has historically maintained release discipline on major titles. The order book's current pricing suggests minimal uncertainty about whether *any* event occurs, leaving little margin for contrarian positioning.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 31 July 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Pop-culture and entertainment markets settle from press releases or official announcements; if the underlying event reschedules, PolyGram extends the resolution date accordingly and re-opens trading until the new date. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "What will happen before GTA VI?", pop-culture markets are usually shallower than sports or politics — a $500 trade can move the line 1-2¢, so larger orders benefit from a limit ladder.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($718K of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "What will happen before GTA VI?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$22.4M in lifetime turnover and $718K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $136K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 13 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "What will happen before GTA VI?", the considerations above apply directly — Entertainment markets often have thinner books than sports or crypto contracts — a single $1k order can move the line several cents, so position-sizing discipline matters more here than in deeper markets.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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