Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the listed artist with the greatest number of monthly listeners according to Spotify on May 31, 2026, 12PM ET. The monthly listener count is listed on each artist's public Spotify profile. Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not count towards the featured artist's total. In the event of an exact tie for the number of monthly listeners, this market will resolve in favor of the listed artist whose name comes first in alphabetical order. If Spotify is down at the listed time on the listed date, this market will resolve based on the most recent available data.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Noah Kahan | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| The Weeknd | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Taylor Swift | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Billie Eilish | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Kanye West | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ed Sheeran | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Justin Bieber | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| Artist C | — | |
On 31 May 2026, Spotify will record which artist holds the highest monthly listener count across their primary profile. The resolution hinges on the exact figure displayed on each artist's public page at 12PM ET, with alphabetical ordering as the tiebreaker. Currently, the market shows 0% implied probability for a specific artist, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about who will lead or that no single favourite has emerged among traders on Polymarket's order book.
Historical patterns show that Spotify's monthly listener rankings shift substantially over twelve-month periods, driven by album releases, touring cycles, and streaming momentum. Artists like The Weeknd, Taylor Swift, and Bad Bunny have rotated through the top position since 2023, each benefiting from major releases or sustained catalogue engagement. The 0% reading reflects genuine difficulty in forecasting eighteen months forward—no artist has yet secured sufficient backing to establish a meaningful probability, indicating traders view the outcome as genuinely open.
Catalysts shaping the May 2026 outcome include scheduled album releases, festival appearances, and playlist placement decisions by Spotify's editorial team. Grammy nominations and award wins typically boost streaming in the following months. Geopolitical or platform policy changes could also affect listener distribution, though Spotify's core mechanics remain stable. Traders should monitor major announcement schedules from leading artists' management teams and watch for any shifts in Polymarket's order book as release dates approach, which would signal emerging consensus on likely frontrunners.
The following lists contain the most streamed songs and albums as well as chart records on the audio streaming platform Spotify.
Top Spot is a 2004 docudrama film written and directed by Tracey Emin. It was produced by Michael Winterbottom and Revolution Films. It stars Elizabeth Crawford, Laura Curnick, Katie Foster Barnes, Frances Williams, Kieri Kennedy, and Helen Laker. Shot on digital video and Super 8, the film focuses on a group of teenage girls in the coastal English town of M
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Top Spotify artist in May?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$14K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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