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Pop culture

Trade: Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Price Over/Under $393.19 on September 30?

14% YES 86% NO

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Over” if the Ungraded Price of Phantasmal Flames Booster Box (Phantasmal Flames) on September 30, 2026 according to Collectr is greater than $393.19. This market will resolve to “Under” if the Ungraded Price of Phantasmal Flames Booster Box (Phantasmal Flames) on September 30, 2026 according to Collectr is less than $393.19. This market will resolve 50-50 if the Ungraded Price of Phantasmal Flames Booster Box (Phantasmal Flames) on September 30, 2026 according to Collectr is exactly equal to $393.19. This market will resolve according to the first publication of the final Ungraded Price value for the specified date.

Entertainment and pop-culture markets price events that traditional bookmakers won't touch - award winners, viral moments, cultural milestones. Current odds favour the NO side at 14%, making this a high-confidence market with 4 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most, backed by $449 of resting liquidity.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake - winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$449
Total Volume
$6K
24h Volume
$390
Open Interest
$3K
Trade this market on PolyGram →

Market outcomes

Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Price Over/Under $393.19 on September 30? 14% YES86% NO

How entertainment markets work

Award shows, reality TV and streaming-hit markets resolve from the official broadcaster announcement or industry body (the Academy for the Oscars, the EBU for Eurovision, Nielsen for US ratings). Because these events have moderate liquidity but high public interest, odds can move sharply as finalists are announced or critics' picks go public. PolyGram routes your order into the same Polymarket order book with a single-tap trading UX.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://app.getcollectr.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

Settlement window & payout timing

For this market, the resolution date is 1 October 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .

If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://app.getcollectr.com/), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline - most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.

Pop-culture and entertainment markets settle from press releases or official announcements; if the underlying event reschedules, PolyGram extends the resolution date accordingly and re-opens trading until the new date. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.

Trading mechanics

Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically - every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Price Over/Under $393.19 on September 30?", pop-culture markets are usually shallower than sports or politics - a $500 trade can move the line 1-2¢, so larger orders benefit from a limit ladder.

The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. At the current YES price of 14%, a $50 stake on YES buys roughly 357 shares; if YES resolves true those shares pay out at $1.00 each (a $357 gross payout, or +$307 profit). If NO resolves, the shares are worth $0. Slippage tolerance and resting-order depth determine the actual fill.

PolyGram charges 0% house edge - no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Price Over/Under $393.19 on September 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email - no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 14% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $714 if YES resolves true - a 614% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$6K in lifetime turnover and $449 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin - large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $390 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market - a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for around a month - fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery - meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
Public announcement criterion
Pop-culture markets resolve from a designated official source - typically a network press release, awards-body announcement, or the artist/studio's verified social account.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
This market's resolution criterion
For "Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Price Over/Under $393.19 on September 30?", the resolution criterion is: This market will resolve to “Over” if the Ungraded Price of Phantasmal Flames Booster Box (Phantasmal Flames) on September 30, 2026 according to Collectr is greater than $393.19. This market will resolve to “Under” if the Ungraded Price of ...

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Price Over/Under $393.19 on September 30?"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 14%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://app.getcollectr.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 October 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Price Over/Under $393.19 on September 30?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake - there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon - a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition - historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Phantasmal Flames Booster Box Price Over/Under $393.19 on September 30?", the considerations above apply directly - Entertainment markets often have thinner books than sports or crypto contracts - a single $1k order can move the line several cents, so position-sizing discipline matters more here than in deeper markets.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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