Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of views the latest YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 72 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 72 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to the video titled "I Survived 7 Days in the Arctic", which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpQSUjNsNm0.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <46M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 46–47M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 47–48M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 48–49M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 49–50M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 50M+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
MrBeast's latest video will be assessed on its view count during the first 72 hours after publication. The market resolves based on which bracket the final tally falls into, with exact midpoints rounding upward. Current order book activity on Polymarket implies zero probability of the video reaching the lowest bracket threshold, suggesting traders expect performance above the minimum range regardless of other variables.
MrBeast's recent upload patterns show consistent performance in the 50–80 million view range within 72 hours, with occasional outliers exceeding 100 million. His December 2024 releases averaged around 60 million views in the first three days, establishing a baseline against which current market brackets should be evaluated. The 0% implied probability on the lowest bracket reflects confidence that the video will clear even conservative thresholds, though this assessment depends entirely on the specific video's subject matter and promotional reach.
Traders should monitor the video's initial 24-hour performance closely, as MrBeast's upload schedule remains irregular and dependent on production cycles. YouTube's algorithmic promotion during the settlement window and any cross-platform marketing campaigns will influence velocity. The settlement window closing on 3 June 2026 allows sufficient time for the full 72-hour period to complete, though early view trajectories typically predict final outcomes with reasonable accuracy by the 48-hour mark.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "# of views of MrBeast video day 3?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$189K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $188K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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