Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 3 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 3 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Czechia | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| France | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| Lithuania | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Malta | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Portugal | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Romania | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Ukraine | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| Cyprus | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Eurovision Song Contest 2026 will take place in May, with participating nations competing across semi-finals and a grand final to determine the top-scoring entry. The contest employs a dual voting system combining professional jury scores and public televoting, with results aggregated to produce final rankings. A nation must progress through the competition structure to qualify for the grand final, where the top three finishers are determined by cumulative scoring across all voting rounds.
Historical Eurovision outcomes demonstrate substantial volatility in final rankings, particularly given the contest's reliance on both professional and public voting mechanisms. Nations favoured in pre-contest polling frequently underperform relative to expectations, whilst surprise performances from lesser-anticipated entries have regularly secured podium finishes. The 5% implied probability currently reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests the market is pricing in either a relatively weak entry from the named country or significant structural disadvantages within the competition format. Comparable markets for previous Eurovision contests have shown that probabilities below 10% typically correspond to entries ranked outside the favourites bracket by expert consensus.
Traders should monitor the official Eurovision Song Contest announcement of participating nations and their allocated semi-final slots, scheduled for autumn 2025. The identity and composition of competing entries, alongside any format changes to voting procedures, will materially affect qualification probabilities. Recent reporting from Eurovision.tv and national broadcasters regarding artist selection processes and song releases will provide concrete data points for reassessing current market pricing ahead of the May 2026 event.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Eurovision 2026: Top 3" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$185K in lifetime turnover and $1.2M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $12K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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