Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 25 12:00 PM ET to May 27, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
Entertainment and pop-culture markets price events that traditional bookmakers won't touch — award winners, viral moments, cultural milestones. Current odds favour the NO side at 11%, making this a high-confidence market with 2 days to resolution — final-48h markets historically see the largest volume spikes, backed by $92K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <40 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| 40-64 | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| 65-89 | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| 90-114 | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| 115-139 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 140-164 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 165-189 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 190-214 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market tracks the volume of posts Elon Musk publishes on X during a 48-hour window from 25–27 May 2026. The resolution mechanism counts main feed posts, quote posts and reposts, excluding replies unless they appear on the main feed timeline. The settlement window closes on 27 May at 16:00 UTC, with deleted posts counting if captured within approximately five minutes of publication.
Musk's posting frequency on X has historically varied considerably based on external events and his engagement cycles. During periods of corporate announcements or product launches, his tweet volume typically spikes; conversely, during quieter news cycles or when he is focused on operational matters at Tesla or SpaceX, activity drops substantially. The current implied probability of 11% YES suggests the market is pricing in a relatively low posting threshold—likely fewer than five or six posts across the 48-hour period. This baseline reflects typical weekend-adjacent activity patterns, though Musk's behaviour remains unpredictable relative to conventional social media usage.
Traders should monitor announcements from Tesla, SpaceX or xAI scheduled near the resolution window, as product reveals, earnings calls or regulatory developments typically correlate with heightened posting activity. The Polymarket order book currently reflects consensus around minimal engagement during this specific timeframe. Any pre-announced events or scheduled appearances by Musk in late May could shift the probability materially, as would unexpected news cycles demanding his public commentary.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://x.com/elonmusk. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 27 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://x.com/elonmusk), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Pop-culture and entertainment markets settle from press releases or official announcements; if the underlying event reschedules, PolyGram extends the resolution date accordingly and re-opens trading until the new date. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Elon Musk # tweets May 25 - May 27, 2026?", pop-culture markets are usually shallower than sports or politics — a $500 trade can move the line 1-2¢, so larger orders benefit from a limit ladder.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($92K of resting liquidity), a $200 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Elon Musk # tweets May 25 - May 27, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$84K in lifetime turnover and $92K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $64K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/elonmusk. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 27 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Elon Musk # tweets May 25 - May 27, 2026?", the considerations above apply directly — Entertainment markets often have thinner books than sports or crypto contracts — a single $1k order can move the line several cents, so position-sizing discipline matters more here than in deeper markets.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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