Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets) at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at https://kaito.ai/mindshare-arena/infomarkets, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Data', will be used to resolve this market. Values will be considered final once the value for the subsequent day has been released.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 70% | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 80% | 76% YES | 25% NO |
| 75% | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 85% | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| 90% | 14% YES | 87% NO |
Polymarket's daily mindshare percentage, as measured by Kaito's Information Markets Arena tracker, will determine whether this market resolves affirmatively if the platform reaches a specified threshold at any point through 30 June 2026. The current order book reflects a 100% implied probability, suggesting traders believe Polymarket will achieve the target mindshare level during the settlement window. Mindshare metrics track the proportion of discussion and attention a platform receives relative to competitors within prediction market discourse, aggregating signals from social media, news coverage, and trading activity.
Historical mindshare data for prediction market platforms shows considerable volatility tied to regulatory announcements, major market events, and user acquisition cycles. Polymarket's mindshare has fluctuated based on US regulatory developments—particularly SEC and CFTC guidance—and competing platforms' feature releases. The 100% probability on the order book suggests either the threshold is set conservatively relative to Polymarket's recent performance, or traders expect sustained or increased platform prominence through mid-2026.
Key catalysts include potential US regulatory clarity on prediction markets, which could broaden Polymarket's addressable market and discussion volume. The platform's integration with Ethereum layer-two solutions and any announced feature expansions would likely drive mindshare gains. Competitive pressure from platforms like Manifold Markets and international alternatives remains a downside factor. Traders should monitor Kaito's historical daily data for Polymarket's baseline mindshare levels and track regulatory announcements that could shift market participant attention materially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$112K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for polymarket contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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