Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a major closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or suspension of commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from Iranian airspace or a major Iranian Airspace region. A qualifying closure must apply generally to flights across Iran or a major Iranian airspace region. Limited cancellations, delays, or other partial closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| May 8 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 31 | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| May 15 | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| May 6 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 7 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Iran has closed its airspace on several occasions in response to military tensions or direct conflict. Most notably, in January 2020, Iran shut down all civilian air traffic for several hours following its ballistic missile strikes on US military bases in Iraq, citing safety concerns from potential retaliation. The airspace remained closed for approximately 16 hours before gradual reopening. Prior to that, Iran suspended flights temporarily during periods of heightened US-Iran tensions and following the 2011 Libyan intervention, though these were typically brief measures lasting hours rather than days.
The 2% probability reflects the relatively low baseline frequency of such closures outside active military conflict scenarios. Iran's airspace has remained open throughout most periods of diplomatic tension, sanctions escalation, and regional instability over the past decade. The threshold for a "major closure" is notably high—requiring broad suspension across Iranian airspace or significant regions rather than isolated airport disruptions—which further constrains the probability space.
Key catalysts to monitor include escalations in US-Iran military posturing, particularly around nuclear negotiations or sanctions policy changes; Israeli military operations in the region; and any direct attacks on Iranian territory or assets. The settlement window extends to May 2026, encompassing potential volatility around US presidential transitions and any renegotiation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Traders should track statements from Iran's Civil Aviation Organisation and military officials regarding airspace security, as well as regional conflict developments that historically have preceded closure decisions.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Iran closes its airspace by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10.7M in lifetime turnover and $188K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $644K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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