What is the current probability for "Will Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz On Any Day By June 30"?

As of 2 June 2026, the market probability on PolyGram is available on PolyGram. Trade on this outcome at polygram.ink.

Oil

Trade: Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

Q: What happens when the market resolves?

Winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon with a two-hour dispute window before payouts are distributed automatically.

Opened 1 June 2026 · Settles 30 June 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: $26K
Total Volume: $7K
24h Volume: $7K
Open Interest: $4K

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Market outcomes

80+	8% YES	93% NO
20+	67% YES	34% NO
40+	32% YES	69% NO
60+	25% YES	76% NO

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil passes daily, sees consistent maritime traffic. This market tests whether daily ship transits will reach a specified threshold on any single day between now and 30 June 2026. The threshold itself remains unspecified in the prompt, but historically, the strait processes between 1,500 and 2,000 transit calls annually across all vessel types tracked by IMF Portwatch. The current 8% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial scepticism that the threshold will be breached even once across an 18-month window.

Historical precedent suggests the strait's traffic patterns are remarkably stable absent major geopolitical disruption. During the 2022 energy crisis following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, daily transits remained within normal ranges despite elevated volatility in oil markets. The 2019 tanker attacks and subsequent tensions saw no sustained reduction in passage numbers. The low probability baked into today's order book indicates traders expect either a high threshold or confidence in continued normalcy, with the market pricing in minimal risk of the kind of supply-chain shock or rerouting that would materially alter daily transit volumes.

Traders should monitor announcements regarding sanctions escalation, particularly against Iranian oil exports, which could redirect shipping patterns. Suez Canal disruptions—as occurred during the 2021 Ever Given blockage—would increase Hormuz traffic as vessels reroute. Scheduled maintenance on the canal or any major port closures in the Gulf region would serve as near-term catalysts. Current geopolitical tensions remain elevated but have not yet translated into measurable transit reductions according to available shipping data.

Wikipedia Context

Ship
A ship is a large watercraft designed for travel across the surface of a body of water, carrying cargo or passengers, or in support of specialized tasks such as warfare, oceanography and fishing. Ships are generally distinguished from boats, based on size, shape, load capacity and purpose. Ships have supported exploration, trade, warfare, migration, coloniza

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$7K in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for oil contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.

Last 24 hours alone saw $7K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

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Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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