Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| Democratic Party | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| D | — | |
| E | — | |
Massachusetts's 2nd congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the November 2026 midterm elections. The district, which encompasses much of central and southern Massachusetts including Worcester and New Bedford, has been represented by Democrat Jim McGovern since 1997. The current 6% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a heavily Democratic-leaning seat where Republican candidates have consistently underperformed. This pricing emerges from the accumulated trading activity across the market's liquidity pools, with the YES position (Republican winner) trading at a substantial discount to historical baseline expectations for the district.
The district's partisan lean provides essential context for interpreting current odds. MA-02 has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2000, with Joe Biden securing 60% of the vote in 2020. In the 2022 midterms, McGovern won re-election with 66% against Republican challenger Eileen Roy. Comparable deep-blue districts rarely flip in midterm cycles absent extraordinary circumstances such as incumbent retirement combined with major national swings or local scandals. The 6% probability aligns with historical patterns where non-incumbent Republicans in safe Democratic seats face structural headwinds.
Traders should monitor McGovern's intentions regarding 2026 retirement, which would materially alter the race dynamics. Any significant redistricting changes following the 2030 census would not affect this cycle. National political environment shifts—particularly any substantial Republican gains in generic congressional polling—would likely compress the YES odds further, whilst Democratic underperformance in special elections or state-level contests could provide modest support for longer-odds Republican scenarios.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "MA-02 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$29K in lifetime turnover and $36K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for nov 4 elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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