Trade: New Zealand legislative election winner?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid part list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $4K
- Total Volume
- $2K
- 24h Volume
- $7
- Open Interest
- $489
Market outcomes
| National Party | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Green Party | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| New Zealand First Party | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Party A | — | |
| Party C | — | |
| Party E | — | |
| Party G | — | |
| Party I | — | |
Market context
New Zealand will hold a general election on 7 November 2026 to determine which party or coalition will command the House of Representatives. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 34% probability that a single party will win the most seats outright, with the remaining 66% distributed across alternative outcomes including various coalition scenarios and the "Other" resolution category. This probability reflects expectations around whether any party can secure a plurality in the 120-seat chamber under the mixed-member proportional voting system.
Historical precedent suggests outright single-party victories are uncommon under New Zealand's electoral system. Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, only two elections have produced a party with an outright plurality: Labour in 1999 and National in 2008. More typically, the largest party has governed through coalition or confidence-and-supply arrangements. The current Parliament, elected in 2023, saw National win 48 seats to Labour's 34, with neither approaching a majority, necessitating coalition formation. This historical pattern of fragmented results underpins the crowd's assessment that a single-party plurality remains a minority-probability outcome.
Traders should monitor polling releases and leadership changes through 2026, as these will shape expectations around party consolidation. The Electoral Commission's official candidate nominations and campaign finance disclosures will provide concrete signals closer to the election. Any significant shifts in the governing coalition's popularity or internal fractures within opposition parties could materially alter the probability of a single-party outcome, particularly if one party demonstrates capacity to absorb support from smaller parties or coalition partners.
Wikipedia Context
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New ZealandNew Zealand is an island country in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. It consists of two main landmasses—the North Island and the South Island —and over 600 smaller islands. It is the sixth-largest island country by area and lies east of Australia across the Tasman Sea and south of the islands of New Caledonia, Fiji, and Tonga. The country's varied topography
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New Zealand national rugby union teamThe New Zealand national rugby union team, known as the All Blacks, represents New Zealand in men's rugby union, which is considered the country's national sport. Famed for their international success, the All Blacks have often been regarded as one of the most successful sports teams in history.
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New Zealand men's national football teamThe New Zealand men's national football team represents New Zealand in men's international football competitions. The team is governed by the governing body for football in New Zealand, New Zealand Football (NZF), which is currently a member of FIFA and the Oceania Football Confederation (OFC). The team's official nickname is the All Whites.
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New Zealand national cricket teamThe New Zealand men's national cricket team represents New Zealand in men's international cricket. Nicknamed the Black Caps, they played their first Test in 1930 against England in Christchurch, becoming the fifth country to play Test cricket. From 1930, New Zealand had to wait until 1956, more than 26 years, for its first Test victory, against the West Indi
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "New Zealand legislative election winner?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$2K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for new zealand election contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $7 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "New Zealand legislative election winner?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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