Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Swapped | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Remarkably Bright Creatures | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| The Silent Twins | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Movie B | — | |
| Movie E | — | |
| Movie F | — | |
| Movie J | — | |
| Apex | 99% YES | 1% NO |
Netflix publishes its global Top 10 movies ranking weekly on top10.netflix.com, with the next update scheduled for Tuesday, 12 May 2026 at 3:00 PM ET. This update will reflect viewership data from the preceding seven days and determine which film ranks second globally across all English-language titles on the platform. The market resolves based on Netflix's official ranking; if the update does not publish by 15 May 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market settles to "Other".
The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about which specific film will occupy the #2 position in a week where multiple releases typically compete for viewership. Historical Netflix rankings show volatile week-to-week movement in the second position, with new releases frequently displacing established titles. The #2 slot is particularly sensitive to release timing and marketing momentum, making it harder to predict than the #1 position. Comparable markets on prediction platforms have shown that mid-ranking positions attract lower trading volume and wider probability spreads than top or bottom positions, partly because traders face higher information asymmetry about which films will drive engagement.
Traders should monitor Netflix's release schedule for the week of 5–11 May 2026, as new film launches typically determine ranking shifts. Industry announcements regarding major releases, marketing campaigns, or platform exclusivity deals will signal competitive intensity. The absence of a clear frontrunner in current market pricing suggests no single film has emerged as the consensus #2 candidate, leaving substantial room for surprise outcomes based on actual viewership patterns.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$13K in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for netflix contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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