Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| A$AP Rocky | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Bad Bunny | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Doja Cat | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| Ed Sheeran | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| Harry Styles | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Kendrick Lamar | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Luke Combs | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| Olivia Rodrigo | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The market tests whether any artist from a specified roster will achieve a number one position on the Billboard Hot 100 chart during 2026. The settlement hinges on official weekly chart data where a song must hold the top position during its reference week, with primary artist credit being the determining factor. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing this outcome at 18% probability, reflecting trader assessment that the listed artists face meaningful but not prohibitive odds of chart dominance across the full calendar year.
Historical Billboard performance suggests the 18% probability sits below the baseline frequency of number ones. Since 2015, approximately 50–52 distinct songs have topped the Hot 100 annually, with the roster of artists achieving number ones typically ranging between 15–25 unique names per year. A curated list of established or emerging artists would ordinarily carry substantially higher odds of producing at least one chart-topper. The discount from historical norms suggests either the roster excludes major commercial forces, or traders are pricing in reduced output or chart momentum for 2026.
Traders monitoring this market should track album release schedules, particularly any announcements from roster artists regarding 2026 projects. Streaming performance and radio adoption patterns in late 2025 will signal momentum heading into the year. Recent chart volatility—where streaming-driven tracks increasingly compete with traditional radio-backed releases—means tracking playlist placement on Spotify and Apple Music becomes material to predicting chart outcomes. Label promotional strategies and collaboration announcements will also shape whether artists generate the sustained commercial push required for number one positioning.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$139K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for music contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $78 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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