Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the listed artist with the second greatest number of monthly listeners according to Spotify on June 30, 2026, 12PM ET. The monthly listener count is listed on each artist's public Spotify profile. Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not count towards the featured artist's total. In the event of an exact tie for the number of monthly listeners, this market will resolve in favor of the listed artist whose name comes first in alphabetical order. If Spotify is down at the listed time on the listed date, this market will resolve based on the most recent available data.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bad Bunny | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| The Weeknd | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| Kendrick Lamar | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| Artist B | — | |
| Artist D | — | |
| Artist E | — | |
| Artist I | — | |
| Artist N | — | |
On 30 June 2026, Spotify will publish its monthly listener rankings, and this market resolves based on which artist holds the second-highest count on that date. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 26% implied probability, reflecting substantial uncertainty about which artist will occupy that position eighteen months forward.
Historical precedent suggests the second-ranked position is volatile territory. The top two spots on Spotify's monthly listener charts shift considerably across six-month windows, driven by album releases, touring cycles, and algorithmic playlist placement. Taylor Swift, The Weeknd, and Bad Bunny have rotated through top positions over recent years, whilst emerging artists like Olivia Rodrigo and Billie Eilish have climbed rapidly following major releases. The 26% probability assigned to any single artist reflects the difficulty in forecasting which of several plausible candidates will land in that specific slot, rather than suggesting an unlikely outcome.
Traders should monitor major album announcements and release schedules through 2025 and early 2026, as new releases typically generate listener surges lasting weeks. Touring schedules and festival appearances also correlate with listener growth. Chart performance data from Spotify Wrapped releases in December 2024 and 2025 will provide intermediate signals about momentum shifts. The resolution depends entirely on Spotify's official count methodology and availability at the specified time; any service disruption would trigger the market's contingency procedures outlined in the full terms.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "#2 Spotify artist in June?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for music contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $293 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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