Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman? | 14% YES | 86% NO |
The 2028 Republican presidential race will determine whether the party's nominee is a woman. Currently, Polymarket's order book is pricing this outcome at 14% implied probability, reflecting substantial scepticism amongst traders that a female candidate will secure the nomination. The Republican Party has never nominated a woman for president, though the Democratic Party nominated Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Kamala Harris in 2020.
Historically, women have gained ground in Republican primary contests but have faced structural disadvantages in securing the nomination itself. Sarah Palin's 2008 vice-presidential candidacy and Nikki Haley's 2024 primary campaign provide recent reference points. Haley, the former South Carolina governor, won 43 delegates in 2024 before exiting the race, demonstrating both the viability of female candidates and the difficulty in converting primary support into the nomination. The Republican base has shown preference for male candidates in decisive moments, though demographic and political shifts could alter this pattern by 2028.
Traders should monitor several developments through the settlement window. Early declarations of candidacy from prominent Republican women—including potential re-entry by figures like Haley or emergence of new candidates—will signal the competitive landscape. The composition of the 2026 midterm elections and any shifts in Republican Party leadership will influence the field. Media coverage of female Republican politicians' prominence and polling data from 2027 onwards will provide concrete indicators of viability. The timing of endorsements from Donald Trump and other party power brokers typically shapes nomination outcomes significantly.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for mtg contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 14%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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