Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $330 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| $345 | 52% YES | 48% NO |
| $450 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| $465 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| $480 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| $495 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| $360 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| $375 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
Microsoft's share price at the close of the final trading day in June 2026 will determine this market's outcome. The 98% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects confidence that MSFT will trade above the specified threshold across an eighteen-month horizon. This probability is being formed by traders pricing in both the historical volatility of a mega-cap technology stock and the extended timeframe available for price discovery.
Historical context suggests that large-cap technology equities rarely experience sustained declines over eighteen-month periods absent severe macroeconomic disruption or company-specific crises. MSFT has demonstrated resilience through multiple market cycles, and the current probability aligns with how traders typically price binary outcomes for established blue-chip stocks over multi-year windows. The 2% tail risk priced into the order book likely reflects scenarios involving systemic financial stress, regulatory action, or unforeseen technological disruption rather than ordinary market volatility.
Traders monitoring this position should track Microsoft's quarterly earnings releases, cloud infrastructure adoption trends, and developments in artificial intelligence competition—particularly regarding OpenAI's trajectory and competitive positioning. Broader equity market conditions and interest rate expectations will influence MSFT's valuation multiple throughout the settlement period. The company's capital allocation decisions, including share buybacks and dividend policy, may also affect closing price dynamics as the June 2026 settlement date approaches. Currency movements could prove material if dollar strength shifts during the period.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above 2026 end of June?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $63 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for msft contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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