Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of views by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 123 billion | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| 124 billion | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| 125 billion | 90% YES | 11% NO |
| 126 billion | 82% YES | 18% NO |
| 127 billion | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| 128 billion | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| 129 billion | 42% YES | 59% NO |
MrBeast's YouTube channel will accumulate a specified threshold of total views by the end of June 2026. The 99% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects confidence in this outcome, with the spread between bid and ask orders pricing in minimal uncertainty. Current view count and upload velocity determine how much runway remains to reach the target.
MrBeast has sustained consistent upload schedules and audience growth since establishing himself as a top-tier creator. His channel reached 200 million subscribers in 2023 and has maintained monthly view counts in the billions. Historical precedent suggests established creators of his scale rarely experience sharp declines in viewership; the channel's trajectory has been upward despite competitive pressures in the creator economy. Comparable high-volume channels like SET India and Zee Entertainment have demonstrated that once a creator reaches this scale, hitting incremental view milestones becomes largely a function of continued content production rather than audience acquisition challenges.
Traders should monitor upload frequency and video performance metrics, particularly engagement rates on newly released content. Any significant gap in uploads—whether due to production constraints, health issues, or strategic pivots—would be the primary catalyst affecting resolution odds. Recent reporting on creator burnout and platform algorithm shifts remains relevant context, though MrBeast's established infrastructure and financial backing reduce exposure to these systemic risks. The settlement window extends 18 months from now, providing substantial time for view accumulation even at reduced upload rates.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will MrBeast hit ___ Billion views by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for mrbeast contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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