Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Donaldson's (aka MrBeast) marriage takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only announcements made within this market's timeframe will qualify. No announcements made after December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET will be considered, even if the marriage itself is announced to have taken place within the market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MrBeast, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will MrBeast get married by December 31? | 71% YES | 30% NO |
Jimmy Donaldson, the YouTube content creator known as MrBeast, may marry by the end of 2026. The market currently prices this at 71% probability, reflecting trader conviction that a wedding announcement and ceremony will occur within the next two years. This timeframe encompasses roughly 24 months from the market's opening, providing a defined window for resolution based on announcements made before 31 December 2026, 23:59 ET.
Comparable cases of high-profile creator marriages suggest markets tend to underestimate relationship progression timelines when public figures maintain active engagement with their audience. Donaldson's relationship status has been subject to periodic public discussion, and creator-sphere precedent shows that engagement announcements often follow relatively compressed timelines once publicly acknowledged. The 71% implied probability sits above base rates for marriage within a two-year window for unmarried individuals in their mid-twenties, suggesting the market is pricing in either elevated likelihood based on relationship status or recent signals that have moved traders toward the affirmative case.
Traders should monitor Donaldson's official social channels and verified statements for any relationship announcements, as the market requires explicit announcements within the settlement window rather than retroactive confirmation. Recent coverage of creator relationships typically emerges through YouTube uploads, Instagram posts, or direct statements during content releases. The Polymarket order book currently reflects the 71% probability through active trading, with the spread between bid and ask prices indicating the level of conviction amongst participants on both sides of the resolution question.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will MrBeast get married by December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$37K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for mrbeast contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $47 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 71%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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