Trade: Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $27K
- Total Volume
- $2K
- 24h Volume
- $280
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| The Odyssey | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 74% YES | 27% NO |
| Movie K | — | |
| Movie L | — | |
| Movie M | — | |
| Movie Z | — | |
Market context
The market is pricing the probability that a single film will generate more domestic box office revenue in its opening week than any competitor throughout 2026. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 4% probability, suggesting traders view this outcome as unlikely relative to the baseline expectation of distributed success across multiple releases.
Historical precedent indicates that opening-week dominance requires either a franchise tentpole with established audience momentum or a surprise breakout. In 2025, films like Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine demonstrated the capacity to generate £100+ million opening weeks, though such performances remain concentrated among a narrow set of releases. The 4% probability reflects scepticism that any single 2026 release will substantially exceed the opening-week performance of its nearest competitor, given the typical distribution of major studio releases across the calendar year and the competitive dynamics of the summer and holiday windows.
Traders should monitor studio release schedules, franchise announcements, and pre-release tracking data throughout 2026. Marvel, DC, and major animated sequels typically command the largest opening weeks; any unexpected delays, repositioning, or underperformance by anticipated frontrunners would materially shift probabilities. Box office tracking firms including Deadline and Variety publish weekly forecasts that provide early signals of relative competitive positioning. The resolution depends on final figures from The Numbers' weekly box office tables, meaning provisional studio estimates will not settle the market until actual data is published.
Wikipedia Context
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Which Moped with Chrome-plated Handlebars at the Back of the Yard?Which Moped with Chrome-plated Handlebars at the Back of the Yard? is a comic novella by Georges Perec. Perec's second published work, it was originally published in 1966 in French as Quel petit vélo à guidon chromé au fond de la cour? The English translation by Ian Monk was published in Three by Perec by David R. Godine, Publisher in 2004. The Review of Con
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Wish (film)Wish is a 2023 American animated musical fantasy film produced by Walt Disney Animation Studios. It was directed by Chris Buck and Fawn Veerasunthorn and written by Jennifer Lee and Allison Moore, and stars the voices of Ariana DeBose, Chris Pine, Alan Tudyk, Angelique Cabral, Victor Garber, Natasha Rothwell, Harvey Guillén, Evan Peters, Ramy Youssef, and Jo
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$2K in lifetime turnover and $27K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for movies contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $280 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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