Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 31 | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| April 15 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Israel has not conducted direct military strikes against Yemeni territory since 2016, despite years of Houthi drone and missile attacks on Israeli cities and shipping in the Red Sea. The question of whether Israeli forces will initiate aerial strikes on Yemen by mid-2026 currently trades at 27% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting meaningful uncertainty about escalation thresholds and strategic calculations.
Historical precedent suggests Israeli decision-making on Yemen strikes depends on attack frequency and sophistication rather than isolated incidents. Israel conducted limited strikes on Houthi targets in 2016 following ballistic missile launches, but subsequent attacks—including dozens of drone strikes on Israeli territory in 2023 and 2024—did not trigger direct Israeli retaliation. The distinction matters: Israeli leadership has treated Houthi attacks as manageable through air defence systems and indirect responses via US-led coalition operations, rather than as justification for unilateral strikes. This restraint, despite provocation, underpins the current 27% probability.
Catalysts traders should monitor include significant changes in Houthi attack capability or frequency, particularly any strikes causing mass casualties or breaching air defences. Regional developments—such as escalation in Gaza or Lebanon, shifts in US policy toward Yemen, or Iranian involvement in weapons transfers—could alter Israeli calculations. The market also depends on definitional precision: strikes on Houthi-controlled areas versus recognised Yemeni government territory carry different political implications. Recent reporting from Reuters and regional analysts suggests the current trajectory favours continued indirect containment over direct action, though the 18-month settlement window allows substantial room for geopolitical shifts.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Israel military action against Yemen by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.7M in lifetime turnover and $35K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for middle east contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $649 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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