Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sources for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will the next elected US president be a woman? | 21% YES | 80% NO |
The 2028 US presidential election will determine whether a woman becomes the 47th president. The current Polymarket order book implies a 20% probability of a female winner, reflecting the field of potential candidates and historical precedent. This probability will shift as primary seasons approach and the Democratic and Republican nominee fields crystallise.
Historically, no woman has won a US presidential election. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 but lost the Electoral College; Kamala Harris, the sitting vice president, could seek the Democratic nomination but faces questions about her political viability following the 2024 election cycle. Female candidates have secured major-party nominations only twice in US history. The current 20% odds suggest markets are pricing in meaningful but not dominant chances for a female nominee to emerge and subsequently win, with the probability compressed by the structural difficulty of winning a general election rather than securing a nomination alone.
Key catalysts include the 2028 Democratic and Republican primary schedules, beginning in early 2028, and any early declarations of candidacy from potential female contenders. Political developments in 2025 and 2026—including midterm results, legislative achievements, and shifts in party leadership—will shape the field. Media coverage of female candidates' polling performance and fundraising capacity will inform market repricing. The resolution hinges on Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC calling the race identically, with inauguration on 20 January 2029 as the backstop date.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will the next elected US president be a woman?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for kamala contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 21%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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