Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair. This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| May 15–22 | 96% YES | 5% NO |
| May 30–June 5 | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| June 13–19 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| June 27–July 3 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Before May 15 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 23–29 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| June 6–12 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| June 20–26 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair runs through June 2026, with the current market pricing a 93% probability that he will have departed the role by the settlement deadline of 3 July 2026. The resolution criteria require Powell to actually vacate the position rather than merely announce his departure or reach the scheduled end of his term; temporary service whilst awaiting a successor's confirmation would not trigger settlement. Polymarket's order book is currently pricing this high probability, reflecting market participants' assessment that Powell will not remain in post through the final settlement window.
Historical precedent suggests Fed Chairs typically serve their full terms absent extraordinary circumstances. Paul Volcker completed his eight-year tenure (1979–1987), Alan Greenspan served 18 years (1987–2006), and Ben Bernanke completed two full terms before stepping down as scheduled in 2014. Janet Yellen similarly departed at the conclusion of her term in 2018. The only recent exception was Donald Trump's public criticism of Jerome Powell, though Powell remained in office throughout Trump's first presidency. The 93% implied probability reflects confidence that Powell will follow the established pattern of completing his scheduled tenure.
The primary catalyst for movement in this market remains the 2024 presidential election outcome and any subsequent policy signals regarding Fed leadership. Powell has indicated willingness to serve his full term if asked, though formal reappointment discussions typically occur 18 months before term expiry. Any announcement from the incoming administration regarding Powell's future status would materially shift pricing. Market participants should monitor Federal Reserve communications and White House statements through early 2025 for clarity on leadership continuity.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$82K in lifetime turnover and $50K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for jerome powell contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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