Trade: Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $12K
- Total Volume
- $15K
- 24h Volume
- $403
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? | 28% YES | 73% NO |
Market context
Expulsion of a U.S. ambassador represents a significant diplomatic rupture, typically reserved for severe bilateral crises or deliberate escalation by a host government. The 28% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects moderate but meaningful risk that at least one country will formally expel its U.S. ambassador before year-end 2026. This probability is being formed across active trading on the platform, where participants are pricing in both baseline geopolitical tension and specific flashpoint risks across the roughly 150 countries maintaining U.S. diplomatic missions.
Historical precedent shows ambassador expulsions remain relatively rare events. The most recent high-profile expulsion occurred in 2020 when Bolivia's interim government expelled the U.S. ambassador amid post-election turmoil. Venezuela has repeatedly expelled or denied entry to U.S. diplomats since 2010, though formal ambassador expulsions have been intermittent. Russia expelled the U.S. ambassador in 2022 following sanctions over Ukraine, and Iran has periodically escalated diplomatic tensions. These cases suggest expulsions cluster around either regime change scenarios, military conflict, or sustained sanctions regimes—conditions that may or may not materialise in the next two years.
Key catalysts traders should monitor include escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, particularly around nuclear negotiations or regional proxy conflicts; potential political upheaval in Latin America or the Middle East; and any major sanctions announcements targeting U.S. diplomatic presence. The market's 28% probability suggests traders see meaningful but not dominant risk, pricing in both the structural rarity of such moves and genuine geopolitical uncertainty through 2026.
Wikipedia Context
-
A Country PracticeA Country Practice is an Australian television soap opera/serial which was broadcast on the Seven Network from 18 November 1981 until 22 November 1993, and subsequently on Network Ten from 13 April 1994 to 5 November 1994. Altogether, 14 seasons and 1,088 episodes were produced.
-
Anyi CountyAnyi is a county of Jiangxi Province, China. It is under the administration of the prefecture-level city of Nanchang, the provincial capital.
-
A Country Boy Can Survive"A Country Boy Can Survive" is a song written and recorded by American musician Hank Williams Jr. The song was released as a single in January 1982 and reached a peak of number 2 on the Billboard Hot Country Singles chart in March 1982. It is considered one of Williams' signature songs, being certified 5× Platinum by RIAA, even though it never reached number
-
A Country Doctor (short story)"A Country Doctor" is a short story written in 1917 by Franz Kafka. It "first appeared in Kurt Wolff's 1918 anthology Die Neue Dichtung and then in early 1920 as the title piece in Kafka's second collection of stories". In the story, a country doctor makes an emergency visit to a sick patient on a winter night. The doctor faces absurd, surreal predicaments
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 28% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $357 if YES resolves true — a 257% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$15K in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for iran contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $403 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 28%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: