Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 4, 2026, through May 10, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <25 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 75-99 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 25-49 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 100+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 50-74 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Strait of Hormuz will see a certain volume of commercial shipping traffic during the week of 4–10 May 2026. The market resolves on the total number of transit calls—container, dry bulk, tanker, roll-on/roll-off, and general cargo vessels—that IMF Portwatch records for that seven-day period. The 87% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects confidence that weekly transits will exceed a specific threshold, though the exact resolution number remains unknown until IMF publishes final data by 24 May 2026.
Historical transit volumes through the Strait typically range between 15 and 25 vessels per week, with seasonal and geopolitical factors creating variance. The strait's criticality to global energy flows means disruptions—whether from Iranian actions, regional tensions, or weather—can sharply compress traffic. The current probability pricing suggests traders expect near-normal passage conditions rather than significant impediments. Comparable weeks in 2024 and 2025 provide baseline data; periods of heightened US–Iran tensions have occasionally reduced weekly transits by 20–30%, whilst routine weeks maintain steady flows.
Traders should monitor announcements from Iran's Revolutionary Guards, US naval positioning statements, and any shipping advisories from the International Maritime Organization. Tanker scheduling decisions by major operators typically lock in weeks ahead, meaning May's traffic is substantially determined by current bookings. Weather patterns in the Arabian Sea and any unscheduled maintenance on regional port infrastructure could also affect routing. IMF Portwatch publication delays occasionally extend beyond the standard reporting window, creating settlement uncertainty.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 4?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$215K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for iran contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $68K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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