Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in 2026 in which SpaceX’s initial public offering (IPO) occurs. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027". Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun. Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| February | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| April | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| June | 71% YES | 30% NO |
| July | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| August | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| September | 3% YES | 97% NO |
SpaceX remains privately held despite decades of speculation about a potential public listing. Elon Musk has repeatedly stated the company prioritises long-term development over near-term shareholder pressures, and no formal IPO timeline has been announced. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the absence of concrete signals—no SEC filings, no underwriter mandates, and no public statements from leadership indicating 2026 as a target year. This consensus pricing suggests traders view an IPO within the next twelve months as highly improbable given SpaceX's current trajectory and stated priorities.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance. Most comparable aerospace and defence contractors went public decades ago; SpaceX's private status has persisted through multiple funding rounds totalling over $180 billion in valuation. Blue Origin and Axiom Space, similarly ambitious space ventures, remain private without disclosed IPO timelines. The company's capital structure—heavily reliant on government contracts and internal cash generation—has reduced pressure to access public markets compared to earlier-stage space firms.
Traders monitoring this market should watch for SEC filings, formal announcements from Musk or SpaceX leadership, and shifts in the company's financial strategy. Recent reporting suggests SpaceX is exploring secondary share sales rather than a full IPO, which would not trigger resolution. Regulatory changes affecting space commerce, major contract wins or losses, and broader market conditions for technology listings could alter the calculus, though none currently point toward a 2026 listing date.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "In which month will SpaceX IPO?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$335K in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for ipos contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $573 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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