Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 20-24.9% | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| 30.0-34.9% | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| 45%+ | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| 35–39.9% | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| <20% | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| 25-29.9% | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| 40-44.9% | 32% YES | 68% NO |
Argentina's annual inflation rate for 2026 will be determined by the year-on-year change in the Consumer Price Index as reported by INDEC in December 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 19% probability, implying traders expect inflation to remain below the threshold specified in the market's resolution criteria—likely a single-digit or low double-digit figure given Argentina's recent monetary trajectory.
Argentina's inflation dynamics have been volatile. Following the 2023 currency crisis and subsequent dollarisation measures under President Milei's administration, monthly inflation rates declined substantially from peaks exceeding 25% in late 2023 to single digits by mid-2024. However, inflation remained elevated relative to global peers throughout 2024 and into 2025, with cumulative annual rates still in double digits. The 19% probability reflects scepticism that inflation will fall sufficiently by end-2026, suggesting the market expects either a rebound in price pressures or a slower-than-hoped disinflation trajectory.
Key catalysts include INDEC's monthly CPI releases throughout 2026, which will signal whether the central bank's monetary tightening and fiscal constraints are sustaining disinflation. The timing of any further currency adjustments, wage negotiations, and international commodity price movements—particularly energy costs—will influence quarterly inflation trends. The December 2026 INDEC report, expected in early January 2027, will provide the definitive settlement figure. Traders should monitor central bank policy statements and any shifts in fiscal or exchange-rate policy that could alter the inflation trajectory materially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Argentina Annual Inflation 2026" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for inflation contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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