Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the first Final Classification published by IndyCar following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the first Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only IndyCar’s published classification will be used to resolve this market.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Odds will populate live once the order book fills resolving today, backed by $43K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Alex Palou | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Alexander Rossi | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| David Malukas | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Felix Rosenqvist | 98% YES | 3% NO |
| Santino Ferrucci | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Pato O'Ward | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Kyffin Simpson | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Conor Daly | 1% YES | 99% NO |
The Indianapolis 500 takes place on 25 May 2026 as part of the IndyCar Series calendar. The market resolves based on the driver officially listed in first place in IndyCar's first published Final Classification following the race conclusion, which typically arrives 30–60 minutes after the chequered flag. Any subsequent adjustments or disqualifications made after that initial classification are disregarded for settlement purposes.
The 0% implied probability reflects the current state of Polymarket's order book, where no traders have yet committed capital to back any specific driver at meaningful scale. This is typical for markets settling nearly 18 months forward, where liquidity remains sparse and most participants await clearer information about driver lineups, team performance, and vehicle regulations. Historical Indy 500 markets show similar patterns: probabilities remain diffuse across the field until the season progresses and competitive hierarchies emerge. The 2024 and 2025 races demonstrated that favourites often shift substantially as teams test components and drivers accumulate race data.
Key catalysts for traders include the 2026 IndyCar season opener in spring, which will establish early performance trends and confirm final driver rosters across all teams. Announcements regarding technical regulation changes, engine supplier developments, and significant driver transfers will influence market pricing. The Indy 500 qualifying format—typically held the weekend before the race—historically produces sharp probability shifts as track conditions and qualifying performance become visible. Weather forecasts and track surface conditions in the days immediately preceding 25 May will also drive late-market movement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 25 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "2026 Indy 500: Winner", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($43K of resting liquidity), a $200 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "2026 Indy 500: Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$53K in lifetime turnover and $43K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for indy 500 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $52K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 25 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "2026 Indy 500: Winner", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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