Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In February 2026, the Pentagon announced it would designate Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk after Anthropic refused to remove AI safety restrictions from its acceptable use policy. Donald Trump subsequently directed all federal agencies to cease using Anthropic's technologies, with a six-month phase-out period for agencies such as the Department of Defense which are actively using Anthropic's products.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| May 31 | 13% YES | 88% NO |
In February 2026, the Pentagon designated Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk following the company's refusal to modify its acceptable use policy and remove AI safety restrictions. President Trump subsequently issued a directive requiring all federal agencies to cease using Anthropic's technologies, with the Department of Defence granted a six-month phase-out window given its active reliance on the company's products. This market tests whether Anthropic and the DoD will reach a commercial agreement permitting resumed use of Claude before the June 2026 settlement deadline.
The 0% implied probability reflects the structural antagonism established by the Pentagon's designation and Trump's executive directive. Historical precedent suggests such designations rarely reverse without significant policy concessions. The comparable case of Huawei's exclusion from US supply chains demonstrates how national security determinations, once formalised, typically persist across administrations and create durable commercial barriers. Anthropic's stated commitment to maintaining safety restrictions—the core trigger for the conflict—suggests limited room for compromise on the terms the DoD would likely demand.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding the Pentagon's phase-out implementation timeline and any signals from Anthropic regarding potential policy modifications. The six-month phase-out period creates a natural decision point, though no formal negotiation has been publicly announced as of late 2025. Congressional activity around defence appropriations and technology policy could shift leverage, particularly if lawmakers intervene to preserve DoD access to Anthropic's capabilities. The current order book pricing reflects confidence that neither party will move toward reconciliation before the deadline.
Mechanism is the belief that natural wholes are similar to complicated machines or artifacts, composed of parts lacking any intrinsic relationship to each other.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$131K in lifetime turnover and $27K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for hegseth contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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