Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if another official trailer for GTA VI is released by Rockstar Games or any of its official accounts, including but not limited to Rockstar's official website, YouTube channel, Twitter, or any other official social media platform between market creation and the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An "official trailer" is defined as a video clearly labelled and marketed as a trailer for the game in question. Teasers, gameplay snippets, or other promotional materials will not qualify for resolution unless explicitly marketed as an official trailer by Rockstar Games. This market will resolve immediately if such an official trailer is released by the expiry date.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| June 15 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| June 30 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
Rockstar Games released the first official Grand Theft Auto VI trailer in December 2023, roughly eighteen months before this market's settlement date of 30 June 2026. The question centres on whether the publisher will release a second official trailer—distinct from gameplay footage, teasers, or other promotional materials—during the specified window. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 6% implied probability, reflecting substantial scepticism amongst traders that another full trailer will materialise before mid-2026.
Historical precedent from previous GTA releases suggests variable trailer cadences. GTA V received multiple official trailers across its pre-launch window, with Rockstar staggering releases to maintain marketing momentum over extended periods. However, modern AAA marketing strategies have shifted towards consolidated campaigns, particularly when initial reveals generate sustained media coverage. The December 2023 trailer garnered significant attention and established GTA VI's release window as autumn 2025, potentially reducing the commercial necessity for additional trailers before the game's launch.
Key catalysts for traders include Rockstar's official announcements regarding marketing schedules, any delays to the autumn 2025 release window, and competitive pressures from other major publishers. Industry reporting from outlets such as VGC and Kotaku typically covers major publisher marketing moves. The proximity of the settlement date to GTA VI's expected launch window—approximately nine months post-release—means most promotional activity would likely conclude before June 2026. Traders should monitor Rockstar's official channels and investor communications for signals regarding extended marketing campaigns.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Another GTA VI trailer released by 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for gta vi contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $187 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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