Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| OpenAI | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| DeepSeek | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Alibaba | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Mistral | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Company F | — | |
| Company I | — | |
| Company K | — | |
Google's AI division must produce a model that achieves an Arena Score of 1550 or higher on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard by the end of 2026. The Chatbot Arena, operated by LMSYS, ranks large language models through comparative user evaluations. Currently, the 6% implied probability on Polymarket reflects substantial scepticism that Google will be first across the finish line, with the order book pricing this outcome as a long-shot relative to competitors.
Historical context suggests the threshold is demanding but achievable. As of late 2024, leading models from Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta occupy the top positions on the leaderboard, with scores in the 1200–1300 range. Reaching 1550 would represent a meaningful jump in performance, requiring either a significant architectural breakthrough or iterative improvements across multiple model releases. Google's track record with Gemini shows competitive capability, though the company has not consistently led the Arena rankings in recent months. The 6% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Google faces steeper odds than rivals in claiming first-mover status at this performance tier.
Traders should monitor Google's model release schedule throughout 2026, particularly announcements regarding Gemini updates or new foundation models. The company typically unveils major developments at its annual I/O conference (May) and through research publications. Competitive moves by OpenAI, Anthropic and Anthropic will shape the race dynamics; any unexpected breakthroughs from these firms could compress Google's window. The Arena's evaluation methodology itself may shift, potentially affecting score comparability across time periods.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$51K in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for google contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $22 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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