Resolution criteria on PolyGram: General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Tarcisio de Frietas | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 82% YES | 19% NO |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Fernando Haddad | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Flavio Bolsonaro | 87% YES | 13% NO |
Brazil will hold its general presidential election on 4 October 2026. The country's electoral system requires a candidate to secure an absolute majority of votes to win outright in the first round; if no candidate achieves this threshold, the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff ballot. This market resolves positively if a specified candidate finishes in the top two positions or wins the first round entirely. The 3% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty about whether any individual candidate will reach the runoff, with the current pricing suggesting traders assess a low likelihood for most non-frontrunner candidates.
Historical precedent shapes expectations here. Brazil's 2018 and 2014 elections both proceeded to runoffs, with neither first-round leader securing the required majority. Polling patterns in those cycles showed considerable volatility in the months preceding the vote, and candidate viability shifted materially based on scandal, coalition-building, and regional support consolidation. The current 3% probability reflects a baseline scepticism about mid-tier candidates' chances, though this pricing may adjust substantially as the election approaches and polling data becomes more granular.
Key catalysts include official candidate registration (expected in August 2026), major polling releases, and announcements regarding political coalition formations. The resolution deadline of 30 June 2027 allows time for official results certification. Traders should monitor developments in Brazil's Congress, particularly shifts in party alliances that could affect candidate viability and first-round vote distribution.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$309K in lifetime turnover and $101K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for global elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 8 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 October 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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