Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Elmano de Freitas | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| Eduardo Girão | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Roberto Cláudio | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Camilo Santana | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Placeholder 3 | — | |
| Placeholder 5 | — | |
| Placeholder 7 | — | |
| Placeholder 9 | — | |
Brazil's Ceará state will hold gubernatorial elections on 4 October 2026, with a potential runoff on 25 October if no candidate achieves an outright majority. The current order book on Polymarket prices the YES position at 26 per cent implied probability, reflecting substantial uncertainty about the eventual winner across a field likely to include multiple competitive candidates. Ceará, Brazil's fourth-most populous state, has historically featured fragmented electoral contests where regional political machines, family dynasties, and shifting coalitions determine outcomes.
Ceará's recent electoral history provides context for interpreting current pricing. The 2022 gubernatorial race saw incumbent Camilo Santana (PT) secure re-election with approximately 52 per cent of valid votes in the first round, avoiding a runoff. However, the state's political landscape remains volatile, with the PT facing challenges from centre-right and right-wing candidates who have gained ground in recent municipal elections. The 26 per cent probability suggests the market is pricing in a dispersed field where no single frontrunner has consolidated dominant support, consistent with Brazilian state-level politics where regional parties and alliances frequently reshape between election cycles.
Traders should monitor candidate registration deadlines in August 2026 and campaign polling releases, which typically intensify from mid-2026 onwards. Coalition announcements from major parties—particularly the PT, União Brasil, and PSD—will signal resource allocation and strategic positioning. Any significant shifts in national political dynamics or economic conditions affecting Ceará could alter state-level calculations. The extended settlement window until June 2027 accommodates potential legal challenges or delayed official certification common in Brazilian electoral processes.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ceará Governor Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$52K in lifetime turnover and $42K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for global elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $478 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 October 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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