What is the current probability for "Israel Ground Operation In Iran Confirmed By"?

As of 11 May 2026, the market probability on PolyGram is available on PolyGram. Trade on this outcome at polygram.ink.

Trade: Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

Q: What happens when the market resolves?

Winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon with a two-hour dispute window before payouts are distributed automatically.

Opened 17 March 2026 · Settles 31 May 2026 · 45 comments

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "ground operation" is defined as a military operation that involves Israeli military ground forces conducting operations within Iranian territory. For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving Israeli troops on the ground within the terrestrial territory of Iran will qualify.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: $20K
Total Volume: $841K
24h Volume: $2K
Open Interest: $50K

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Market outcomes

March 31	0% YES	100% NO
April 30	0% YES	100% NO
May 31	9% YES	91% NO

Market context

The market concerns whether Israeli military personnel will conduct a ground operation within Iranian territory between late February and end of May 2026, with confirmation required by the settlement deadline. This represents a significant escalation from the aerial and maritime exchanges that have characterised Israeli-Iranian tensions in recent years. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial political and military barriers to such an operation, though the settlement window extends across a volatile period in Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Historical precedent suggests ground incursions into Iran remain exceptionally rare. Israel conducted limited cross-border raids into southern Lebanon and Syria throughout the 2010s and 2020s, but sustained ground operations within Iranian sovereign territory would represent a qualitatively different commitment. The 2024 escalation cycle—including the April ballistic missile strike and October drone attacks—remained confined to aerial and maritime domains. Current regional dynamics, including ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, suggest Israeli military resources remain concentrated elsewhere, weighing against the probability of a major Iranian ground campaign.

Traders should monitor statements from Israeli defence officials regarding operational scope, any significant escalation in Iranian proxy activities that might trigger Israeli response, and announcements from the US administration regarding support for such operations. The Reuters reporting on Israeli military planning in early 2025 and any subsequent strategic shifts would provide directional signals. The settlement window's placement after the US presidential transition creates additional uncertainty around American diplomatic and military posture toward potential Israeli actions.

Wikipedia Context

Israeli Ground Forces
The Israeli Ground Forces are the army of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The current commander of the ground forces is Major General Nadav Lotan.
Israeli pound
The pound or lira was the currency of the State of Israel from 9 June 1952 until 23 February 1980. The Israeli pound replaced the Palestine pound and was initially pegged at par to £1 sterling. It was replaced by the shekel on 24 February 1980, at the rate of IS 1 = IL 10, which was in turn replaced by the new shekel in 1985.
Warsaw Ghetto boy
The Warsaw Ghetto boy is the central figure in the best-known photograph taken during the 1943 Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, seen holding his hands over his head while SS member Josef Blösche points an MP 28 submachine gun in his direction. The boy and others had hid in a bunker during the final liquidation of the ghetto, but were forced out by SS troops, marched
Israel Grodner
Israel (Yisrol) Grodner was one of the founding performers in Yiddish theater.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$841K in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.

Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.

The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

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Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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