Trade: Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Clinton and/or Hillary Clinton announce their intention to divorce by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market. The resolution source will be statements from Bill Clinton and/or Hillary Clinton, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $16K
- Total Volume
- $103K
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $15K
Market outcomes
| Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Market context
Bill and Hillary Clinton have remained married for over 50 years despite well-documented marital difficulties, most prominently following the Monica Lewinsky scandal in 1998. The couple has maintained their union through subsequent decades whilst pursuing separate professional trajectories—Hillary Clinton served as Secretary of State and twice ran for president, whilst Bill Clinton has remained active in the Clinton Foundation and public speaking. An announcement of divorce intent by June 2026 would represent a significant departure from their established pattern of weathering crises whilst remaining legally bound.
Historical precedent suggests that high-profile political divorces typically occur following specific triggering events rather than gradual deterioration. The current 1% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the market's assessment that no such catalyst is presently evident. Previous instances of prominent political figures divorcing—such as Rupert Murdoch's multiple separations or more recently, Bill Gates and Melinda Gates in 2021—often involved explicit public statements about irreconcilable differences or specific triggering incidents. The Clintons have shown no recent public indication of marital breakdown, and both remain engaged in joint foundation work and public appearances together.
Traders monitoring this market should watch for any unexpected health crises, major legal developments affecting either Clinton, or significant shifts in their public appearances together. Recent reporting from major outlets shows both Clintons continuing collaborative professional activities. The settlement window extends to mid-2026, providing approximately 18 months for any announcement to occur, though the established pattern suggests such an outcome remains statistically improbable absent unforeseen circumstances.
Wikipedia Context
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Bill ClintonWilliam Jefferson Clinton is an American politician and lawyer who served as the 42nd president of the United States from 1993 to 2001. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously served as the attorney general of Arkansas from 1977 to 1979 and as the governor of Arkansas from 1979 to 1981, and again from 1983 to 1992. His centrist "Third Way" political
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Bill Clinton sexual assault and misconduct allegationsBill Clinton, the 42nd president of the United States (1993–2001), has been publicly accused of sexual misconduct, including rape, harassment, and sexual assault. Additionally, some commentators have characterized Clinton's sexual relationship with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky as predatory or non-consensual, while Lewinsky called the relationshi
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Bill Clinton 1992 presidential campaignThe 1992 presidential campaign of Bill Clinton, the then-governor of Arkansas, was announced on October 3, 1991, at the Old State House in Little Rock, Arkansas. After winning a majority of delegates in the Democratic primaries of 1992, the campaign announced that then-junior U.S. senator from Tennessee, Al Gore, would be Clinton's running mate. The Clinton–
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Bill Clinton Supreme Court candidates
President Bill Clinton made two appointments to the Supreme Court of the United States, both during his first term.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 1% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $10000 if YES resolves true — a 9900% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$103K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 1%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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