Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? | 8% YES | 92% NO |
Google must publicly release Gemini 4.0 Flash as a generally available product by 30 June 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The model needs genuine public access—whether through open beta or unrestricted waitlist signup—rather than closed testing or limited enterprise availability. Google's announcement must explicitly position the release as publicly accessible.
The 8% implied probability reflects the compressed timeline and Google's historical release cadence. Gemini 3.5 Flash arrived in May 2024, roughly eighteen months before this settlement date. Google typically spaces major model releases by 12–18 months, and the company has shown willingness to extend development cycles when pursuing capability improvements. Previous major releases (Gemini 1.5 Pro, Gemini 2.0) involved staged rollouts across different access tiers, complicating the definition of "public release." The current order book pricing suggests traders view a Gemini 4.0 public launch within this window as unlikely but plausible.
Key catalysts include Google's I/O developer conference (typically May), quarterly earnings calls where product roadmaps surface, and any direct announcements from Demis Hassabis or the DeepMind leadership. Recent reporting on Google's AI infrastructure investments and competition from OpenAI's o1 reasoning models may influence development priorities. Traders should monitor whether Google signals acceleration of its release schedule or confirms extended timelines for Gemini 4.0 development. The distinction between Flash and non-Flash variants, and whether Google bundles 4.0 under a different product name, will determine settlement interpretation.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$52K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for gemini 3 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $233 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 8%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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