Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Francesinhas and Bubliki in the LPLOL Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 8 at 3:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Francesinhas" if Francesinhas win the match against Bubliki. This market will resolve to "Bubliki" if Bubliki win the match against Francesinhas. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 59% YES | 41% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 62% YES | 39% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 55% YES | 46% NO |
Francesinhas and Bubliki are scheduled to contest a best-of-one League of Legends match in the LPLOL Regular Season on 8 May at 3:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 59% implied probability for Francesinhas victory, suggesting market participants view them as moderate favourites. This probability has formed through real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, with the spread between bid and ask prices narrowing as the match date approaches.
Historical performance data from LPLOL seasons indicates that regular-season BO1 outcomes depend heavily on team form trajectory, roster stability, and recent scrim results—factors that shift considerably in the weeks preceding matches. Teams experiencing roster changes or coaching adjustments typically see wider probability swings in their markets. Comparable matches between similarly-ranked squads have historically settled within 5–8 percentage points of their implied probabilities, though upsets occur at roughly the frequency the market prices them.
Traders should monitor official LPLOL announcements regarding any roster changes, injury disclosures, or scheduling delays, as these can trigger repricing. The settlement window closes 7 May at 01:00 UTC, creating a hard deadline for information incorporation. Match cancellations, ties, or delays beyond 7 days from the original date trigger a 50-50 resolution, a tail risk currently priced into the order book. Any forfeiture by either team during play resolves according to competitive ruling rather than match completion.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/rtparenalol. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Francesinhas vs Bubliki (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/rtparenalol. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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