Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Copa Libertadores game, scheduled for May 19 at 10:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Independiente del Valle (-1.5) | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Club Libertad (-1.5) | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| Independiente del Valle (-2.5) | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| Club Libertad (-2.5) | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 77% YES | 23% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 16% YES | 84% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 45% YES | 56% NO |
Independiente del Valle and Club Libertad will contest a Copa Libertadores fixture on 19 May at 22:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices the "More Markets" outcome at 45%, reflecting trader expectations that additional betting markets will be offered for this match beyond those already live. Settlement occurs at 02:00 UTC on 20 May, shortly after the scheduled kick-off.
Historical precedent suggests Copa Libertadores matches of this magnitude typically attract expanded market coverage. Polymarket has progressively deepened liquidity pools for major South American club competitions, particularly when fixtures involve established sides like Libertad. The 45% implied probability indicates genuine uncertainty amongst traders about whether platform operators will deem this specific matchup worthy of supplementary markets—a decision often hinging on expected trading volume and regional interest patterns.
Key catalysts include any official announcements from Polymarket regarding market expansion plans, team news affecting perceived match significance, and broader platform activity in the lead-up to kick-off. Libertad's recent domestic form and Independiente del Valle's standing in the continental competition will influence whether traders anticipate heightened engagement. Weather conditions or fixture postponements could alter the calculus around market proliferation. Traders should monitor Polymarket's communication channels and Copa Libertadores official schedules through 19 May, as late-stage decisions on market creation often correlate with pre-match sentiment shifts and liquidity forecasts.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://conmebollibertadores.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Independiente del Valle vs. Club Libertad - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$45 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://conmebollibertadores.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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