Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between REKONIX and 1win in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 9 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "REKONIX" if REKONIX win the match against 1win. This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win win the match against REKONIX. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| First Blood in Game 2? | 100% YES | 1% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 51.5 in Game 2? | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 47.5 in Game 2? | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 49.5 in Game 2? | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | — | |
| Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 2? | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 59.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 1% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 51% YES | 50% NO |
The 1win Essence Playoffs upper bracket semifinal between REKONIX and 1win is scheduled for 9 May at 16:00 UTC. This best-of-three Dota 2 match determines which team advances to the grand final stage of the tournament. The current Polymarket order book reflects a 99% implied probability, pricing REKONIX as the heavily favoured outcome. This extreme skew suggests either substantial pre-match information favouring REKONIX, or illiquidity in the market creating wide spreads that traders have not yet arbitraged.
Dota 2 esports markets at this probability level typically indicate either a significant skill or roster disparity, recent form data strongly favouring one side, or both teams' qualification status already determined by earlier results. Upper bracket semifinals in established tournaments rarely see such lopsided pricing unless one team has demonstrated clear dominance throughout the event or enters with known roster issues. Historical patterns show that 99% probabilities in esports resolve correctly roughly 95–98% of the time, though the remaining variance often stems from unexpected technical issues, player illness, or administrative decisions rather than competitive upsets.
Traders should monitor official 1win Essence Playoffs communications for any roster confirmations, schedule changes, or withdrawal announcements in the days before 9 May. Dota 2 patch updates or last-minute stand-in players can shift team preparation significantly. The settlement window closes at 21:00 UTC on 9 May, allowing seven days for match completion; any delay beyond 16 May without a result triggers a 50-50 resolution. Current liquidity at 99% suggests limited counterparty interest in backing 1win, which may reflect genuine confidence in REKONIX rather than deep market depth.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/stariy_bog. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: REKONIX vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$489K in lifetime turnover and $340K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $489K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/stariy_bog. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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