Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between MODUS and Inner Circle in the European Pro League Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 10 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "MODUS" if MODUS win the match against Inner Circle. This market will resolve to "Inner Circle" if Inner Circle win the match against MODUS. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game Handicap: IC (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% YES | 100% NO |
MODUS and Inner Circle face off in the European Pro League Playoffs lower bracket quarterfinal on 10 May, with the winner advancing and the loser eliminated. The match is scheduled for 11:00 AM ET and will be contested as a best-of-three series. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for MODUS, indicating that traders are pricing this as a near-certain outcome for the Swedish organisation.
The 100% probability warrants scrutiny given that Dota 2 competitive matches, particularly in lower bracket elimination rounds, frequently produce upsets. Inner Circle, whilst lower-seeded, operates within the same regional ecosystem and has demonstrated capacity to compete at EPL level. Historical precedent from recent Dota 2 playoffs shows that teams entering lower bracket matches from stronger bracket positions win approximately 65–75% of the time, not the 99%+ implied by current pricing. This suggests either material information disadvantaging Inner Circle or a thin liquidity environment where modest YES positions have moved the probability to extremes.
Traders should monitor team roster confirmations and recent scrim results in the days preceding 10 May, as last-minute substitutions or injury announcements could shift the match dynamics. The EPL's official schedule and any postponement notices will be critical; the settlement window extends to 21:00 UTC on 10 May, allowing a seven-day grace period for rescheduling before resolution triggers the 50-50 clause. Liquidity depth on the order book should also be examined—thin markets at extreme probabilities often correct sharply when fresh capital enters.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/epldota_en2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: MODUS vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$44K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $25K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/epldota_en2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: