Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Kenya and Cameroon scheduled for 2026-05-28 in T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Kenya will be considered correct if Kenya is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Cameroon will be considered correct if Cameroon is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| CMR3 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| KEN2 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Kenya and Cameroon will contest a T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier match on 28 May 2026, with this market requiring both the coin toss and final match result to favour the same team. The settlement hinges on official records from ESPNCricinfo, making it a compound probability event where both outcomes must align. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the current absence of meaningful liquidity or backing for either outcome, typical of niche cricket qualifier markets with limited trading activity.
Comparable T20 qualifier matches show that compound toss-and-result markets rarely attract substantial volume until closer to fixture dates. Historical data on African qualifier cricket suggests Kenya typically enters such tournaments as the stronger unit, though Cameroon's participation indicates competitive regional depth. The toss itself carries roughly 50% probability for either side, but the requirement to win both toss and match substantially reduces the likelihood for any single outcome, which the current zero probability may understate given the mathematical floor.
Traders should monitor fixture confirmation and squad announcements as the May 2026 date approaches, as any withdrawal or rescheduling would affect settlement. Weather forecasts for the venue and team composition updates will influence perceived match-outcome probabilities. Early liquidity typically emerges one to two weeks before qualifier matches, when regional cricket media coverage intensifies and betting syndicates begin positioning. The settlement window closes 28 May at 08:30 UTC, allowing minimal post-match trading window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Kenya vs Cameroon - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$52 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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