Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix, scheduled for Jun 7, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Jun 14, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Pierre Gasly | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Fernando Alonso | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| Alexander Albon | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| Sergio Perez | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| Charles Leclerc | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| Esteban Ocon | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| Lando Norris | 18% YES | 82% NO |
The 2026 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix will take place on 7 June 2026, with the FIA's Final Classification typically published within 30–60 minutes of race conclusion. This market resolves based on the driver officially listed in first place, inclusive of any time penalties applied during the stewards' review period. Should the race be cancelled or postponed beyond 14 June 2026, the market resolves to "Other." The current order book reflects a 2% implied probability, suggesting traders view this outcome as a low-probability event relative to the field.
Monaco's street circuit presents unique technical and meteorological variables that distinguish it from conventional racing venues. Historical data shows that pole position carries disproportionate weight at Monaco—approximately 40% of winners have started from pole over the past decade—whilst weather disruptions, safety car periods, and mechanical failures create volatility absent from other circuits. The 2025 Monaco result and pre-season testing data from January–February 2026 will provide material reference points for assessing driver and team form heading into the race week.
Key catalysts include team performance announcements during the 2026 season, driver injury or contract changes, and technical regulation shifts affecting car balance on tight circuits. Traders should monitor official FIA communications regarding circuit modifications or safety protocols that might influence race dynamics. The settlement window closes at 13:00 UTC on 14 June, allowing approximately 24 hours post-race for stewards' decisions and FIA classification publication.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Monaco Grand Prix: Driver Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$67 in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for formula1 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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