Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a red flag is shown at any point during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix, scheduled for Jun 7, 2026. The market will resolve to "No" if the race is completed without any red flag periods. If the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Jun 14, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50. A red flag shown during practice sessions, qualifying sessions, or any other session besides the main race does not count for this market. Only red flags shown during the Grand Prix race itself will result in a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
The 2026 Monaco Grand Prix will take place on 7 June on the famous street circuit in Monte Carlo. Red flags—which halt the race entirely—are called when conditions become too dangerous for continued racing, typically following significant accidents, debris on track, or severe weather. The current 50% implied probability on Polymarket reflects genuine uncertainty about whether such a stoppage will occur during the main race itself, with the order book showing balanced conviction between traders expecting an incident and those betting on a clean race.
Historical data provides context for assessing this probability. Monaco has experienced red flags in recent seasons: the 2018 race saw a red flag after Leclerc's crash, whilst the 2022 race was red-flagged following Magnussen's barrier impact. Over the past decade, approximately 15–20% of Formula 1 races have featured red flag stoppages, though Monaco's narrow confines and high-speed sections create elevated crash risk compared to most circuits. The street circuit's limited run-off areas and unforgiving barriers mean even moderate incidents can trigger safety protocols, supporting the elevated 50% probability versus the sport-wide baseline.
Traders should monitor pre-race weather forecasts, as heavy rain significantly increases red flag likelihood on Monaco's tight layout. The FIA's ongoing safety regulation changes and any circuit modifications announced before June 2026 could also shift incident probabilities. Recent seasons have shown improved barrier technology and medical response times, potentially reducing red flag frequency, though Monaco's inherent characteristics remain a constant variable in the calculation.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for formula1 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 50%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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