Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a polymarket on the driver who achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix, scheduled for Jun 6, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Jun 13, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| George Russell | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Arvid Lindblad | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Isack Hadjar | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Liam Lawson | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Lance Stroll | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Pierre Gasly | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Fernando Alonso | 50% YES | 50% NO |
The 2026 Formula 1 season will see its Monaco Grand Prix qualifying session on 6 June, with pole position determined by the fastest single lap during the official FIA qualifying session. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting substantial uncertainty about which driver will secure the grid's top spot. Settlement depends on FIA's official qualifying results and remains valid provided the event occurs by 13 June 2026; any cancellation or rescheduling beyond that date triggers an "Other" resolution.
Monaco's qualifying has historically favoured drivers with precise car control and intimate circuit knowledge, with pole positions often clustering among championship contenders and experienced drivers comfortable with the tight street circuit. Between 2015 and 2024, pole positions went predominantly to drivers from Mercedes, Red Bull, and Ferrari, though the 2026 grid composition and technical regulations remain subject to ongoing FIA announcements. The current 50% probability suggests the market is pricing significant parity among leading contenders or genuine uncertainty about which team will achieve qualifying dominance under the new power unit regulations introduced that season.
Traders should monitor pre-season testing results from February and March 2026, team performance announcements, and any regulatory clarifications affecting aerodynamic or power unit development. Weather conditions at Monaco in early June—particularly rain during qualifying—historically create volatility in pole position outcomes. Driver transfers and team restructuring announcements through early 2026 will also shape expectations, as will any technical directives from the FIA that might advantage particular chassis or engine configurations ahead of the qualifying weekend.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Monaco Grand Prix: Driver Pole Position" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $24 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for formula1 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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