Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix, scheduled for Jun 13, 2026. If the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Jun 20, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Alpine | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Aston Martin | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Williams | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Audi Revolut | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Cadillac | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Ferrari | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Tgr Haas | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Mclaren Mastercard | 48% YES | 53% NO |
The 2026 Formula 1 season will visit Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya on 13 June, with qualifying determining pole position on the Saturday. The constructor achieving the fastest single lap during the qualifying session will settle this market in favour of YES; all other outcomes resolve NO. The settlement window closes at 14:00 UTC on 20 June, providing a one-week buffer after the scheduled qualifying date. Should the race be cancelled or postponed beyond that deadline, the market resolves to "Other."
The current 48% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about constructor competitiveness two years hence. Historical precedent shows pole position at Barcelona typically favours teams with strong low-downforce efficiency and mechanical grip, given the circuit's high-speed corners and limited overtaking. Mercedes dominated qualifying at this venue through the 2010s and early 2020s, though Red Bull and Ferrari have claimed poles in recent seasons. The 2025 constructor championship standings and winter testing data from early 2026 will substantially clarify which teams possess the aerodynamic and power-unit advantages needed for a single-lap advantage.
Key catalysts include the FIA's technical regulation confirmations for 2026, scheduled power-unit homologation deadlines in late 2025, and pre-season testing results in February 2026. Recent reporting from Motorsport.com and Autosport indicates ongoing development uncertainty around hybrid power-unit specifications, which could shift relative qualifying performance. Team announcements regarding driver lineups and aerodynamic philosophies through 2025 will also inform market positioning. The Polymarket order book currently reflects this uncertainty; traders should monitor constructor development trajectories and any regulation clarifications that might favour specific technical approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Catalunya Grand Prix: Constructor Pole Position" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $51 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for formula1 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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